On-chain information and market chatter present Bitcoin could also be shifting into a special part. Glassnode warned on Aug. 20 that latest revenue taking and better promoting stress level to a late stage within the cycle. Merchants and analysts are watching carefully.
Three Cycles Not Halvings
Based on analyst James Checkmate, Bitcoin’s historical past suits into three broad cycles reasonably than a rhythm set by halvings.
He calls them an adoption cycle from 2011 to 2018, an adolescence cycle from 2018 to 2022, and a maturity cycle from 2022 onward.
Checkmate argues these phases have been pushed by altering adoption patterns and market construction, not by the block reward cuts that occur each 4 years.
He even stated Bitcoin is “the one different endgame asset alongside gold,” suggesting the present part might stretch longer than many anticipate.
In my view, Bitcoin has skilled three cycles, and they aren’t anchored across the halvings.
They’re anchored across the tendencies in adoption and market construction, with the 2017 prime, and 2022 backside being the transition factors
🔴 Retail early adoption
🟠 Wild West, Growth &… pic.twitter.com/3rbUUpnwen— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Halving Sample Nonetheless In Play
Studies have disclosed that the halving concept stays fashionable as a result of markets have peaked within the 12 months after earlier halvings — 2013, 2017, and 2021 are sometimes pointed to as examples.
The narrative goes {that a} provide shock from diminished block rewards, mixed with demand, pushes costs greater, and observers say the sample appears on monitor for 2025.
That view retains a easy timing mannequin alive: halving, then peak the following 12 months. It’s tidy and it’s straightforward to mannequin, which is why many merchants nonetheless use it.
BTCUSD buying and selling at $111,357 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Institutional Flows And Liquidity
Primarily based on stories, some voices now put extra weight on liquidity and institutional flows than on calendar-based occasions.
Analysts say the cycle isn’t formally over till the market sees optimistic returns subsequent 12 months. The four-year cycle could also be completed.
Credit score: Francesco Carta fotografo/Getty Photos, Alice Morgan/Investopedia
They added that enterprise cycle dynamics clarify the peaks and troughs higher than halving dates. Market veterans maintain it sensible: cycles by no means really disappear — folks purchase, costs rise, then sellers clear the positive aspects, and we begin once more.
How lengthy the bullish leg runs is determined by the place liquidity sits and the way a lot new capital arrives.
$BTC long-term holders have already realized extra revenue this cycle than in all however one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side stress. Taken alongside different indicators, this implies the market has entered a late part of the cycle. pic.twitter.com/PHXkOizXhz
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Indicators And Stakes
In the meantime, Glassnode’s late-cycle sign is a warning, and it was made public on Aug. 20. Merchants who comply with on-chain metrics level to elevated promoting and diminished accumulation as indicators to tighten threat.
On the identical time, proponents of the halving-linked mannequin notice the historic sample: bull peaks occurred after the halving in a number of cycles. Either side use arduous dates and numbers — years like 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2025 and 2026 — to make their instances.
Featured picture from Equiti, chart from TradingView
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