Bitcoin’s (BTC) April 2024 halving minimize block rewards from 6.25 to three.125 BTC, compressing the hash worth and forcing Bitcoin miners to rethink their enterprise mannequin.
As a substitute of ready for payment markets to rescue margins, the most important operators began signing contracts to lease infrastructure to AI tenants.
Core Scientific dedicated 500 megawatts to CoreWeave for $8.7 billion over a 12-year interval. Cipher locked in 168 MW with Fluidstack for $3 billion over a decade, with Google backstopping obligations.
These offers rely on the calculation that the identical inputs powering SHA-256 ASICs can generate extra income per megawatt-hour when pointed at high-performance compute.
The query is how a lot non-Bitcoin income miners want to cut back promote strain on treasuries, what occurs to the community’s hashrate if capability migrates, and which operators have the steadiness sheets to execute.
Bitcoin miners management low cost energy, industrial websites, cooling infrastructure, and operations experience, which is every part AI compute wants.
The income curves differ: mining ties earnings to hash worth and coin worth. AI colocation delivers contracted greenback income per kilowatt-month. What issues is the margin comparability in {dollars} per megawatt-hour, and unit economics favor internet hosting when the hash worth compresses.
Safety price range underneath strain
Hashprice measures the income of miners per petahash per day. When it falls, miners shut off machines or promote Bitcoin to cowl fiat bills.
The community’s safety price range equals the block subsidy plus charges in BTC phrases, however its greenback worth has turn out to be extra risky after the halving.
The transient payment surge when Runes launched in the course of the halving block demonstrated how on-chain demand can affect the hash worth, however outdoors these spikes, charges have been modest.
Energy prices are fastened in {dollars}, and income is available in Bitcoin. When the hash worth hovers at $50 per petahash per day, a contemporary fleet working Antminer S21-class machines at 17.5 joules per terahash generates roughly $119 per megawatt-hour.
Subtracting a $50 per MWh energy worth, the money margin sits at $69 per MWh. The mannequin is operational, however barely.
Bump the hash worth to $75 per petahash per day, and income climbs to $179 per MWh, yielding $129 per MWh in money margin.
The delta between survival and profitability is slim and hinges on components miners can’t management: BTC worth, community problem, and payment velocity.
AI internet hosting presents a manner out: dollar-denominated contracts that don’t fluctuate with the hash worth, locked in over multi-year phrases, using the identical infrastructure that runs ASICs.
The place Bitcoin miners meets AI
Bitcoin miners and AI operators require the identical infrastructure: reasonably priced energy, proximity to substations, industrial cooling, fiber-optic interconnects, and experience in sustaining uptime.
Core Scientific’s CoreWeave deal implies a internet hosting payment of roughly $121 per kilowatt-month. Cipher’s Fluidstack contract runs about $149 per kW-month.
These are signed contracts with creditworthy counterparties, not aspirational projections. The income construction sometimes separates internet hosting charges from energy prices, because the tenants reimburse energy consumption whereas operators earn a set charge per kilowatt.
That shifts commodity danger to the tenant and converts miner income into infrastructure-as-a-service.
Rack charges between $120 and $180 per kW-month translate to a facility income depth of roughly $139 to $208 per megawatt-hour, assuming an influence utilization effectiveness of 1.2.
As a result of energy is handed by, a lot of that income is allotted to money circulation after non-power working bills.
Evaluate that to SHA-256 mining at $75 per petahash per day, the place the income depth is $179 per MWh, however each greenback of energy value is deducted upfront.
The internet hosting mannequin removes Bitcoin worth publicity and payment volatility, changing it with multi-year visibility. For miners with debt, that money circulation profile is financing-friendly.
Unit economics and treasury coverage
A 100-MW web site working SHA-256 at $75 per petahash per day and a $50 per MWh energy value generates roughly $129 per megawatt-hour in money margin, which is roughly $11.3 million yearly.
The identical 100 MW leased to an AI tenant at $150 per kW per 30 days yields a facility income depth of roughly $174 per MWh.
If the tenant covers energy, the operator retains most of that as margin. The internet hosting construction delivers materially increased money circulation per megawatt when the hash worth weakens or energy costs rise.
Treasury coverage issues. MARA Holdings has held as a lot as 52,000 BTC and at instances bought none. Riot Platforms bought 465 BTC in September 2025 for about $52.6 million to fund growth. CleanSpark grew its treasury above 13,000 BTC whereas persevering with to construct out.
All face the identical fiat expense base: energy payments, debt service, and payroll. Internet hosting income modifications the equation. If a miner generates $15 million yearly from AI colocation on 100 MW, that’s $15 million that doesn’t require promoting Bitcoin.
The treasury can keep coin-denominated with out ravenous money operations. When hashprice compresses, that buffer permits miners to experience out weak environments with out pressured gross sales, thereby dampening the promote strain that sometimes follows halvings.
Much less BTC being despatched to exchanges from miner wallets means much less marginal provide.
Hashrate migration and community results
If a significant share of hashrate migrates to AI internet hosting and isn’t backfilled, community hashrate falls till problem retargeting restores equilibrium.
The safety price range in BTC stays unchanged, blocks nonetheless produce 3.125 BTC plus charges, however the cost-to-attack can rise with a decrease hashrate.
The flip aspect is mechanical. A decrease community hashrate means a better hash worth for remaining miners, assuming a continuing Bitcoin worth and costs.
In a situation the place 10% of worldwide hashrate shifts to AI internet hosting over 18 months and community hashrate drops by roughly 10%, problem adjusts downward, and hash worth for remaining miners rises proportionally.
Miners who stayed on SHA-256 seize that upside, whereas those that pivoted to AI lock in contracted greenback income.
The trade-off is between Bitcoin publicity and the knowledge of money circulation. Charges complicate the evaluation. If payment markets activate by Runes, layer-2 settlement visitors, or cost quantity, the hash worth can climb shortly.
Miners who transitioned from SHA-256 to AI internet hosting miss out on that upside. AI contracts present draw back safety however cap participation in fee-driven income surges.
The optimum technique depends upon every miner’s value construction, steadiness sheet, and look at on Bitcoin’s payment trajectory.
Who wins and what might break
Operators with very low energy prices, expandable interconnects, and capital flexibility display screen greatest. Core Scientific’s pivot to HPC internet hosting after chapter restructuring exhibits how a steadiness sheet reset permits strategic repositioning.
Cipher’s Google-backed deal demonstrates the significance of creditworthy counterparties. Bitdeer, Iris Vitality, TeraWulf, and CleanSpark have all signaled their intention to make the most of HPC, reflecting the trade’s rising recognition that AI demand can monetize stranded energy capability.
Dangers are actual. GPU cycles might shift, leaving miners with capital expenditures sunk into infrastructure that loses worth. Contract counterparty danger is a priority for smaller AI startups that lack sturdy steadiness sheets.
Grid politics surrounding giant masses are intensifying in Texas, the place ERCOT’s interconnect queue is lengthy and capability additions are lagging behind demand progress.
Miners who lease interconnect capability to AI tenants could wrestle to reduce if Bitcoin’s economics enhance.
Interconnect queues matter greater than public dialogue acknowledges. A miner with 200 MW of contracted energy and grid interconnect approval can pivot between SHA-256 and HPC primarily based on economics.
A miner ready in ERCOT’s queue can’t monetize the positioning till approvals clear, which might take years. Miners that moved early captured optionality that late movers lack.
What to observe in 2026
For the following 12 months, it could be smart to trace energy buy settlement bulletins, ERCOT interconnect milestones, miner steerage on non-BTC income combine, and payment velocity on Bitcoin.
ERCOT’s capability experiences body the shortage backdrop in Texas, the place most large-load motion concentrates. Interconnect capability is changing into the binding constraint.
Payment developments will decide whether or not staying on SHA-256 delivers comparable returns to AI internet hosting. If Runes or Layer 2 visitors drives sustained payment progress, hashprice might stabilize above $100 per petahash per day, making mining aggressive with internet hosting on a risk-adjusted foundation.
If charges keep muted, the internet hosting mannequin wins on money circulation certainty. Miners are hedging: conserving some capability on SHA-256 whereas changing a share to AI internet hosting, preserving optionality till the market reveals which mannequin dominates.
The strategic query isn’t whether or not miners turn out to be AI corporations, nevertheless it’s how they allocate finite interconnect capability, energy contracts, and steadiness sheet sources between competing makes use of.
The miners that win can execute on each: sustaining SHA-256 operations when the hash worth justifies it, scaling AI internet hosting when contracts pencil out, and preserving flexibility to shift between fashions because the economics evolve.
What’s at stake is whether or not the Bitcoin mining trade retains its single-use id or turns into a multi-tenant energy monetization layer that occurs to safe a blockchain.
