The way forward for the US greenback is likely one of the most hotly debated matters in finance proper now, and J.P. Morgan’s learn on it’s a bit completely different from what most on Wall Avenue are saying. Whereas the US greenback dropping has traditionally been handled as a disaster sign, the financial institution is wanting on the similar knowledge and arriving some place else fully. As of February 19, 2026, the Greenback Index (DXY) is sitting at round 97.75 — down roughly 8.1% over the previous 12 months — and the way forward for the US greenback in 2026 has turn out to be a real divide. Most main banks place their 2026 greenback prediction for DXY someplace between 92 and 100, however how analysts are deciphering that vary is the place issues get fascinating.
How US Greenback Dropping Shapes Wall Avenue And JP Morgan’s 2026 Forecast
J.P. Morgan’s Official Stance
In March 2025, Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya led the foreign money staff to a bearish place on the greenback, and the staff has held that stance ever since. Of their view, the US greenback will weaken additional, although much less drastically than earlier than. The staff estimates a fall of roughly 3% by way of mid-2026, with higher-yielding currencies just like the Australian greenback and the Norwegian krone absorbing most of these losses, as interest-rate differentials pull capital away from US holdings. JPMorgan pegs that bearish name towards Fed coverage expectations and in addition towards the notion that the dollar will discover very restricted room to strengthen.
Chandan and her staff wrote:
“Our outlook for 2026 stays internet bearish, although the anticipated decline is smaller and extra uneven than the weak point we foresee for 2025.”
The Way forward for the US Greenback and What May Reverse It
The strategists talked about they might turn out to be decisively bullish on the greenback ought to financial knowledge turn out to be ok to delay Fed easing, then even stronger development would do the trick, successfully eradicating the Fed dovish bias, they mentioned, which might make them reverse their stance altogether. Wall Avenue just isn’t fully cohesive on this both. One instance is Morgan Stanley, which believes that there may very well be end-of-year restoration to 99 to 100, partly because of fiscal stimulus, but in addition because of large inflows of capital into the US associated to AI. The overwhelming majority of 2026 greenback predictions throughout the road counsel DXY stays between 92-100 with a low round 94 in the direction of Q2 as doubtless the Fed will scale back charges twice.
J.P. Morgan Asset Administration’s Chief World Strategist David Kelly additionally addressed the way forward for the US greenback immediately, stating:
“This could permit the greenback to renew its decline, albeit at a slower tempo than in early 2025.”
What J.P. Morgan thinks concerning the greenback and what the remainder of Wall Avenue thinks usually are not fairly the identical factor. Predictions for the greenback in 2026 stay break up throughout main banks, and the way forward for the US greenback will maintain shifting as Fed coverage expectations change all year long. J.P. Morgan’s message, at its core, is a measured one — the way forward for the US greenback means managed weak point, not a breakdown, and the largest precise threat to markets just isn’t the foreign money dropping however the already elevated valuations sitting in US equities.
