Michael Saylor’s Technique (previously MicroStrategy) could have to rebuild its greenback reserves to revive investor confidence and scale back issues about future bitcoin gross sales, in keeping with JPMorgan analysts, who’ve now turned “cautious” on digital property.
Technique’s latest determination to promote 32 bitcoin “spooked” markets even when the sale was “symbolic and voluntary,” supposed to exhibit the corporate’s dedication and adaptability to most well-liked stockholders, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated in a report titled Different Investments Outlook and Technique revealed Friday.
The analysts stated Technique’s present greenback reserves cowl solely about 6.3 months of dividend funds, including to investor issues.
“In our opinion a rebuilding of the corporate’s greenback reserves may be wanted to revive confidence and scale back investor issues that the corporate would promote extra bitcoins to cowl dividend funds,” the analysts stated.
In December, Technique established a $1.44 billion U.S. greenback reserve to safeguard dividend funds on its most well-liked inventory and repair curiosity on excellent debt.
Earlier Sunday, Saylor, Technique’s co-founder and government chairman, as a substitute hinted at a recent bitcoin purchase, posting on X: “An excellent time so as to add extra dots.” Technique at the moment holds 843,706 bitcoin at a mean price of $75,699, representing a paper lack of about $11.5 billion at present costs.
The JPMorgan analysts additionally anticipate Technique to proceed shopping for bitcoin. If its year-to-date tempo continues, it could suggest round $32 billion of bitcoin purchases in 2026, in contrast with roughly $22 billion in each 2025 and 2024, the analysts stated, revising their estimate from $30 billion final month.
General, the analysts stated a constructive second half of the 12 months can be conditional on Technique clarifying its technique for assembly dividend funds of $1.7 billion a 12 months and the passage of the crypto market construction invoice, or Readability Act.
JPMorgan sees lower than 50% probability of crypto invoice passing this 12 months
However the analysts now see lower than a 50% probability of the invoice passing this 12 months. Earlier this week, they stated the laws could have solely a slender window for passage as U.S. midterm elections method, the stablecoin yield debate continues and key hurdles stay.
General, the analysts have now turned cautious on digital property. In an earlier Different Investments Outlook and Technique report revealed in February, they stated they have been “chubby” and “constructive” on digital property for 2026 as they anticipated an extra rise in crypto flows led by institutional buyers slightly than retail buyers or digital asset treasury corporations.
The rebound in institutional flows they projected was anticipated to be supported by the passage of extra crypto rules, together with the Readability Act. The analysts additionally famous that bitcoin has spent most of this 12 months buying and selling beneath their estimated manufacturing price, one other issue behind their extra cautious stance. Their central bitcoin manufacturing price estimate fell from $90,000 initially of the 12 months to $77,000 as hashrate and mining issue declined, earlier than rebounding to about $87,000 extra just lately. Traditionally, the analysts stated bitcoin’s manufacturing price has tended to behave as a “tender ground,” or assist degree, for the bitcoin worth. Bitcoin is at the moment buying and selling at round $62,000.
The analysts additionally pointed to weaker capital flows into digital property this 12 months. They estimate complete digital asset inflows at round $22 billion year-to-date, implying an annualized tempo of roughly $52 billion, about half the extent seen in 2025. The estimate consists of crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, crypto enterprise capital fundraising and company treasury purchases of digital property, together with Technique’s bitcoin acquisitions.
‘Bullish contrarian sign going ahead’
Regardless of turning cautious, the analysts stated the present weak sentiment in crypto markets would possibly show a “bullish contrarian sign going ahead.”
Nonetheless, a constructive second half of the 12 months “can be conditional on Technique clarifying its technique [for] assembly dividend funds of $1.7 billion a 12 months and on the approval of the U.S. market construction laws for which we now see lower than 50% probability,” the analysts concluded.
Moreover their feedback on Technique and the crypto invoice, the analysts largely reiterated views from a number of latest studies as a part of their broader crypto outlook inside different property. They stated the debasement commerce is “cooling,” safety dangers and disappointing development stay main constraints to DeFi’s institutional attraction, and Ethereum and different altcoins are unlikely to meaningfully outperform bitcoin with out stronger community exercise and real-world adoption.
