What Elo Measures
The brand new function, known as Prediction Market Elo, applies an Elo/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and aggressive gaming matchmaking. It ranks merchants primarily based on how persistently they predict right outcomes, not on how a lot cash they transfer.
Arkham described the system at launch: “Some merchants persistently win on Polymarket, guess after guess. We’ve created prediction market efficiency scores (Elo) on Arkham Intel that can assist you discover them.”
Each right prediction raises a dealer’s Elo rating relative to the broader dealer pool. Predictions made at decrease odds carry extra weight than these made at larger odds, since calling a longshot accurately alerts extra edge. Wager dimension isn’t factored in in any respect, which means a dealer with a small bankroll however a excessive hit price can outrank a high- quantity whale working with decrease consistency.
Who Leads the Elo Board
The Arkham leaderboard’s Score tab reveals “GardenerCx” holding the highest Elo rating of 2389 as of launch. The account makes a speciality of short-term crypto up/down markets on Polymarket, buying and selling 5-minute value course calls. Throughout 2,512 resolved markets, the account carries a 66.1% win price and a 47% return on funding (ROI), with $51.4K in realized revenue on $110.7K in capital.
Arkham famous in its launch publish that GardenerCx “revolves round buying and selling crypto up/down 5-minute markets with unimaginable accuracy” with a win price of 64.3% over 2,644 bets on the time of the announcement.
The second-ranked account, “roberto73,” focuses on soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, posting a 47.8% win price throughout 2,835 markets with $177.8K in revenue and an Elo of 2254. Third-ranked “Oliveira39” covers sports activities together with soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win price over 1,817 markets and $50.1K in revenue.
The PnL vs. Elo Divide
The distinction between profit-based rankings and Elo standings is without doubt one of the function’s clearest alerts. On the Prime Merchants tab filtered by 7-day efficiency, “blunttedge” leads with a 75% win price throughout 1,027 trades and $8.3M in revenue. “1two1two” follows with an 83.3% win price throughout 2,435 trades and $5.6M in PnL.
“Swisstony,” one of many platform’s most prolific bettors, ranks third on the PnL board with a 52.9% win price throughout 261,298 trades and $3.4M in latest revenue. On the Elo board, the account holds a score of 1514, putting it within the prime 7% of merchants however effectively under the accuracy leaders. Arkham famous that regardless of his excessive sizing and PnL, “his trades are much less persistently worthwhile” in comparison with merchants who rating larger on pure forecasting accuracy.
The separation illustrates the system’s intent. PnL leaderboards may be pushed by place dimension and quantity. The Elo board surfaces merchants who get outcomes proper persistently, no matter how a lot capital they deploy.
Background and Entry
Arkham first launched a full Prediction Markets analytics suite in early Could 2026. That suite included PnL-based leaderboards, particular person dealer profiles with full place historical past and win price graphs, real-time commerce feeds filterable by class, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which incorporates greater than 3.5 billion tackle labels and over 800,000 verified entities.
The Elo function builds immediately on that basis as an accuracy layer sitting alongside present profit-based instruments.
What It Means for Merchants
Prediction market quantity on platforms together with Polymarket and Kalshi has grown steadily via 2026. Till now, leaderboard visibility has gone primarily to the most important bettors and largest PnL names. The Elo system provides researchers and merchants a solution to establish forecasters with documented talent, a cleaner sign for these trying to observe or analyze constant edge moderately than uncooked revenue.
