Bernstein has maintained an Outperform ranking and $140 worth goal on Circle Web Group, implying about 59% upside after CRCL closed Friday at $87.98, because the brokerage expects $USDC adoption to help the corporate even with out passage of the CLARITY Act.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated in an Aug. 24 notice that Circle’s subsequent development cycle doesn’t rely on Congress passing the U.S. crypto market construction invoice through the September session.
Circle shares gained greater than 5% on Aug. 21 earlier than closing at $87.98, in accordance with Yahoo Finance information. The $140 goal would put the inventory about 59% above Friday’s closing worth, though it stays beneath Bernstein’s earlier $190 goal from earlier this 12 months.
Chhugani’s crew tied its outlook to a number of sources of demand, together with stablecoin funds, blockchain-based capital markets, tokenized property and funds made by autonomous software program brokers.
The analysts additionally pointed to adjustments in world liquidity circumstances. Bernstein stated Bitcoin has benefited from demand for scarce property whereas stablecoins have grow to be one other vacation spot for {dollars} because the U.S. Treasury points extra short-term authorities debt.
$USDC provide has began increasing once more
After spending virtually six months largely flat, $USDC provide elevated by about $1.7 billion through the previous week, in accordance with Bernstein.
The brokerage stated $USDC has grow to be an necessary collateral asset throughout decentralized finance, tokenized equities, prediction markets and perpetual futures tied to real-world property. Bernstein estimated that Circle’s stablecoin accounts for about 80% of decentralized trade buying and selling and finance volumes.
Stablecoin exercise exterior speculative buying and selling can also be increasing, in accordance with the agency. Adjusted transaction quantity, which Bernstein stated excludes bots and high-frequency exercise, reached about $11 trillion throughout 2025 and was working at an annualized tempo of roughly $17 trillion by way of July 2026.
That tempo represented a rise of about 60% from a 12 months earlier, in accordance with the brokerage.
Circle has additionally been increasing the institutional infrastructure by way of which companies can use $USDC. In July, crypto.information reported Circle obtained approval from the Workplace of the Comptroller of the Forex to determine Circle Nationwide Belief, a federally supervised nationwide belief financial institution.
The approval permits the establishment to offer digital asset custody companies and will ultimately place administration of reserves backing $USDC throughout the federally regulated entity, in accordance with Circle.
Institutional entry has expanded by way of banks and digital asset infrastructure suppliers as nicely. Circle stated throughout its second-quarter outcomes that Commonplace Chartered had launched direct $USDC minting and redemption entry for institutional prospects.
A separate July integration additionally introduced $USDC settlement by way of Fireblocks, permitting establishments to handle $USDC balances throughout supported blockchains and route funds into native fiat currencies by way of Circle Funds Community.
Fireblocks stated stablecoins accounted for 69% of transaction quantity throughout its platform through the second quarter, whereas Circle stated its Funds Community reached $14.7 billion in annualized transaction quantity on the finish of the quarter.
Circle sees agent funds as one other $USDC market
Machine-to-machine funds kind one other a part of Bernstein’s Circle thesis, with the analysts pointing to $USDC’s early lead in funds made by way of the x402 protocol.
Circle launched Agent Stack in Could as infrastructure that enables software program brokers to carry property, uncover companies and make programmable funds.
By the second quarter, Circle stated the platform had greater than 900 paid companies, whereas 99.3% of x402 agent-payment quantity was settling in $USDC.
Unbiased information has additionally proven heavy $USDC use within the class. A Keyrock report lined in Could discovered that AI brokers had settled $73 million throughout 176 million transactions over 12 months, with $USDC dealing with 98.6% of these funds.
Circle has constructed Agent Wallets, an agent market and nanopayment instruments across the similar use case. The corporate stated Agent Stack lets builders set spending limits, allowlists and different controls whereas allowing brokers to make $USDC transactions with out requiring a human to approve every fee.
For Bernstein, adoption of such companies might create one other supply of stablecoin transaction demand exterior cryptocurrency buying and selling.
CLARITY Act consequence doesn’t change Bernstein’s Circle thesis
Regulation stays one of many largest variables for Circle as a result of U.S. lawmakers are nonetheless negotiating how stablecoin rewards and digital asset market construction ought to work.
Bernstein stated the end result of the CLARITY Act wouldn’t materially change its funding case.
“We imagine, this development cycle is unbiased of the Readability Act passing within the September session,” the analysts wrote.
The brokerage stated failure to safe Senate help through the anticipated Sept. 15 vote might immediate the Securities and Trade Fee and Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee to take a bigger function in offering regulatory steering.
“We imagine, the SEC/CFTC intervention would speed up if the Senate doesn’t help Readability within the Sept. 15 vote,” Bernstein stated.
Stablecoin rewards stay one of many contested elements of the laws. Underneath the state of affairs outlined by Bernstein, failure of the invoice would go away third-party reward applications working below the present mannequin.
If the laws passes, the analysts count on rewards to grow to be extra carefully tied to buyer exercise as an alternative of funds merely for holding an idle stablecoin stability.
Bernstein views both construction as workable for $USDC.
Its view has remained constant even because the language round stablecoin incentives has modified. In Could, Bernstein backed Circle’s regulatory place after lawmakers superior language that restricted deposit-like yield on passive stablecoin balances.
On the time, the brokerage stated such restrictions might stop stablecoin issuers from competing primarily by paying greater returns to token holders, lowering strain on Circle to enter what the analysts described as an interest-rate competitors.
Banking teams have since pushed lawmakers to tighten the foundations additional. A number of U.S. banking organizations urged Senate leaders in July to revise provisions coping with stablecoin rewards, arguing that some constructions might nonetheless operate like interest-bearing accounts.
Circle faces competitors as fee infrastructure expands
Bernstein’s bullish name comes as Circle faces elevated competitors from different regulated stablecoin fashions.
Open USD has emerged as one problem as a result of its consortium construction distributes a part of the reserve economics to taking part corporations, creating a unique mannequin from Circle’s strategy of incomes revenue from the property backing $USDC.
Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform in July and lower its goal to $50, citing strain that Open USD might place on Circle’s margins.
Circle President Heath Tarbert later defended the corporate’s place, arguing that $USDC’s liquidity, current integrations and regulatory infrastructure could be troublesome for brand new rivals to breed rapidly.
Circle has continued including fee companions whereas competitors develops. Its settlement with Japan’s JCB, introduced in July, contains checks of $USDC for company treasury transfers earlier than attainable use in service provider funds, whereas separate partnerships with Kakao and Toss are analyzing stablecoin settlement and programmable funds in South Korea.
$USDC additionally entered BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform in June, permitting institutional prospects to mint, redeem, maintain, and switch the stablecoin by way of the financial institution.
Bernstein disclosed that Chhugani holds lengthy positions in a number of cryptocurrencies and that the brokerage or its associates have maintained funding banking or different enterprise relationships with Circle through the previous 12 months.
