On this article, we’ll analyze a peculiarity of the cryptocurrency market, particularly the correlation that exists between the worth development of Bitcoin (BTC) and that of Ethereum (ETH), the principle altcoin available in the market. We are going to attempt to leverage this statistic to create a scientific buying and selling technique, engaged on the Ethereum-Bitcoin (ETH-BTC) pair.
The attribute that one desires to research is linked to an alleged recurring habits (in any other case referred to as Bias) that may present itself through the course of the week: one desires to confirm whether it is true that it’s handy to carry Bitcoin (BTC) from the start of the week till the weekend, and convert it into Altcoin (due to this fact into Ethereum on this instance) through the weekend, when certainly Bitcoin appears to take a break in favor of the Altcoin which as a substitute recognize.
The idea of bias, which means a recurring habits of costs over time, is without doubt one of the easiest triggers on which it’s attainable to construct a buying and selling technique. It’s a market inefficiency that reoccurs with a sure regularity, for instance, in particular time slots or days of the week. When it extends to longer intervals, it’s normally known as seasonality.
Correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum: value evaluation over time
To confirm if this recurring habits between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) really exists, the Bias Finder might be used within the preliminary section, a software developed internally on the Unger Academy to simplify the seek for biases on futures. The Bias Finder, in truth, based mostly on the historic information of a sure instrument, can shortly analyze developments on candles with a variable length between 5 and 60 minutes. As soon as the instrument and the time-frame are chosen, it’s then attainable to judge completely different time horizons: day by day (Intraday), weekly (Weekly), month-to-month (Month-to-month), or annual (Yearly). For every of those, a chart is generated that exhibits the development of the chosen instrument, expressed as the common financial tour over time in absolute phrases or as a proportion.
In our case, by deciding on the Ethereum-Bitcoin (ETH-BTC) pair, with a 15-minute timeframe and an information historical past from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2024 (information supply: Binance), one can shortly assess whether or not the habits that was assumed through the week is current or not, by analyzing the development of the common financial tour of the instrument.
From the weekly chart proven in Determine 1, the place every line represents a 12 months (from 2018 to 2024) and the darkish blue line represents the common for the complete interval, we will see that statistically, excluding 2021 (plotted in inexperienced), the Ethereum-Bitcoin pair exhibits a sure tendency to say no (the worth of Bitcoin will increase in comparison with that of Ethereum) from the start of the week till about Thursday, then barely rises through the weekend.
The bias, due to this fact, though not very pronounced, nonetheless appears to be current, so one might hypothesize a scientific buying and selling technique to judge its profitability.
Logic of the Bias buying and selling technique on the Ethereum-Bitcoin (ETH-BTC) pair
Initially, utilizing a 60min chart of Ethereum-Bitcoin, and referring to the UTC time zone, one would possibly hypothesize promoting (i.e., shopping for Bitcoin) on Monday at midnight (evening between Sunday and Monday), and shopping for Ethereum (ETH) on Friday additionally at midnight. Any open place, due to this fact, can be closed by opening the place in the other way, with none cease loss or take revenue order.
For simplicity in studying the outcomes, operations might be performed with 100 Bitcoin (BTC) for every commerce, thus permitting a direct analysis of the outcomes as a proportion of the capital employed, which is exactly 100 Bitcoin (BTC). Figures 2 and three present the metrics of this quite simple technique, with none kind of filter utilized to the operations.
It’s instant to note how the rising fairness confirms the presence of the bias recognized with the Bias Finder, though the development is fairly unstable within the historic vary thought-about.
Evaluating the common commerce, a price of 0.38 Bitcoin (BTC) is discovered, which is 0.38% of the capital employed (100 Bitcoin), which might additionally represent a price sufficient to cowl operational prices, contemplating that it’s a tough technique, however it may possibly actually be improved.
Optimization of the technique on Ethereum-Bitcoin: strategies to enhance efficiency
One might first optimize the market entry timing by various the times and entry time: for the lengthy entry day between Wednesday and Saturday, and for the brief entry day between Sunday and Tuesday. Determine 4 exhibits the results of the optimization carried out with MultiCharts, the place the times of the week vary from 0 (Sunday) to six (Saturday). It’s famous that the lengthy entry (buy of Ethereum) on Wednesday at 16:00 is more practical in comparison with Friday, as beforehand hypothesized. The brief entry can as a substitute be left on Monday at midnight, since advancing or delaying it by an hour doesn’t considerably change the outcome.
The following step could possibly be to judge using cease loss and take revenue to higher handle open positions. By optimizing the cease loss between 0 and 5 Bitcoin (equal to 0% – 5% of the open place), in steps of 0.1, and the take revenue between 0 and 10 Bitcoin in steps of 0.25, you get the mixtures in Determine 5, amongst which you might go for the one with Cease 1.9 Bitcoin and take revenue 7.5 Bitcoin, which ends up in a wonderful Internet Revenue to Max Drawdown ratio and a median commerce that rises to 0.55%.
As illustrated in Determine 6, the fairness line has undoubtedly improved, as have all of the metrics of the technique noticed beforehand.
Nevertheless, by analyzing lengthy trades and brief trades individually, it may be seen that the lengthy aspect is the much less efficient one, so one would possibly take into account filtering lengthy entries utilizing value patterns, to function solely when situations are extra favorable for the event of the bias that one is making an attempt to experience. Nothing would stop doing the identical on the brief aspect, offered that one doesn’t filter an excessive amount of and threat falling into overfitting the technique.
Conclusions and insights for growing a buying and selling technique based mostly on the Bitcoin-Ethereum correlation
The bias recognized between Ethereum and Bitcoin represents an attention-grabbing instance of market inefficiency that may be exploited with a scientific strategy. Regardless of the simplicity of the preliminary strategy, the outcomes spotlight important potential, particularly after optimizing the entry and exit guidelines of the trades.
This examine goals to be a place to begin for additional exploring the subject and refining the technique to additional enhance its efficiency. The alternatives for refinement are quite a few, and the curiosity and initiative of the reader are left with the duty of exploring them to create more and more efficient techniques.
Till subsequent time and blissful buying and selling!
Andrea Unger
