Bull or bear? Next $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate

Bitcoin has handled $106,400 as a pivot throughout the present cycle, performing as each resistance and assist.

Value has repeatedly clustered close to the extent, cleared it on retests, and expanded towards the following channel bands, whereas breaks beneath the extent typically required a restore section earlier than any advance.

My charts beneath present value channels which have been most influential to Bitcoin because the begin of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted by the stable yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the worth first broke $106,000 after a gradual climb from sub-$100,000 areas. As soon as the extent cleared, the worth pressed to $107,800 earlier than failing a retest of $106,400 and falling again into the mid-$90,000s.

Late January 2025 introduced an identical sample with extra back-and-fill. Bitcoin met $106,400 from beneath, then stalled. Comply with-through carried the intraday value into the $108,300 vary earlier than once more failing the retest.

Even with noise contained in the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the motion, with the market repeatedly checking the extent earlier than shifting again down. The consistency of this habits throughout weeks is what makes the road helpful for danger administration.

By late Might 2025, the connection flipped. The worth examined $106,400 twice from beneath after which twice extra from above earlier than utilizing this stage as assist a number of extra occasions.

Bounces carried to $111,900 and $110,300, then momentum light on the sixth retest, and a grind decrease started.

Throughout this era, $106,400 behaved like a ground. So long as closes held above it, sellers did not press the following decrease bands in dimension. As soon as that ground lastly gave means by the tip of the month, restoration took longer, reinforcing the concept shedding the pivot adjustments the tempo.

June 2025 illustrated the assist and resistance operate once more.

After dipping beneath the extent in mid-month and subsequently being rejected 4 extra occasions (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin ultimately reclaimed $106,400 on the finish of the month, held a number of intraday highs, and superior to $108,300 and $109,400.

The response after every retest was orderly, which is typical when a broadly watched pivot is revered. Merchants who waited for affirmation on the line had specific invalidation if the worth fell again by way of $106,400, and clear targets within the higher bands if it held.

This noticed Bitcoin crack into value discovery territory and ultimately attain its cycle excessive of $126,000. We didn’t see $106,400 examined once more till the Trump commerce tariff $19 billion wipeout on October 10.

The sequence from October to early November 2025 reveals the opposite aspect.

A decisive drop from increased ranges depraved all the way down to $106,400 earlier than surging again towards $115,000. Bitcoin has tried to carry the pivot a number of occasions, and as of press time, it’s about to mark its eighth check.

To date, every time $106,400 has been examined since we hit $126,000, the worth instantly bounced again towards $110,000 – $115,000.

Ominously, Bitcoin has by no means held $106,400 after eight retests earlier than.

These repeated interactions matter as a result of they compress a fancy set of variables right into a single reference.

$106,400 aligns with the center of the present channel pack on the displayed framework, which suggests it sits close to a fair-value axis the place each patrons and sellers discover liquidity.

When the worth is accepted above this stage, the trail of least resistance shifts to the following higher cluster. When the worth rejects or loses its stage, the market typically has to rebuild participation beneath earlier than patrons regain management once more.

The sample throughout the screenshots could be summarized as follows.

Date window	Interplay with $106,400	Speedy consequence	Subsequent band(s) reached/examined
Dec 16–22, 2024	First breakout above $106,000; failed retest of $106,400	Rejection and drop into mid-$90,000s	$107,800
Jan 20–27, 2025	Method from beneath, stall, then failed retest after intraday push increased	Consolidation beneath the pivot	$108,300
Might 19–31, 2025	Flip from resistance to assist; held a number of occasions, then misplaced ground late-month	Bounces then grind decrease after breakdown	$111,900 and $110,300 earlier than slipping below
Jun 9–30, 2025	Reclaimed and held after a number of failed mid-month exams	Orderly advance and affirmation of pivot	$108,300 and $109,400
Jul–Sep 2025	Consolidation above; not retested throughout rally to cycle excessive	Cycle excessive formation	$126,000 peak (no contact with pivot)
Oct 10–21, 2025	Tariff shock wick to $106,400, sharp rebound	Bounce towards $115K	$110,000-$115,000
Oct 22–Nov 3, 2025	Repeated retests of $106,400 (approaching eighth as of press time)	Nonetheless holding intraday, however danger of loss rising	Rebounds towards $110K-$115K

For merchants who map choices to ranges, the playbook is easy.

When value clears $106,400 and confirms on a retest, consideration naturally shifts to the following overhead clusters round $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which line up with the dashed yellow rungs on the displayed ladder.

Failure again by way of the pivot returns focus to the draw back stack round $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, the place the market has repeatedly discovered liquidity throughout breakdowns.

This framework doesn’t predict course; it defines areas the place execution high quality tends to enhance and the place invalidation is unambiguous.

This stage additionally helps reconcile conflicting alerts from momentum or funding.

In periods when momentum turns however value nonetheless sits above $106,400, the trail to increased bands typically stays open so long as the pivot holds.

In periods when by-product positioning seems crowded, but the market can not reclaim its stage, the burden of proof stays with patrons till acceptance returns. The end result is a sensible method to managing publicity with out overfitting to short-term indicators.

None of those assigns particular standing to a single quantity past its repeated use within the present construction. Markets evolve, and pivots migrate as distributions shift.

Nonetheless, the charted channels have depicted intraday assist and resistance ranges for nearly 2 years at this level.

The worth of $106,400 lies within the tape that retains returning to it, the reactions that type round it, and the readability it provides for planning the following commerce.

Thus, $106,400 seems to be functioning because the cycle’s steadiness level, and value continues to deal with it accordingly..