For crypto stakeholders, February 14 (Valentine’s Day) this yr gained’t be about celebrating love. As a substitute, it’ll be concerning the 13F filings which are anticipated to be due on the identical date, and other people might be on the lookout for solutions as to how the October 10 crash occurred.
Technically, whereas 13F filings are due 45 days after the tip of the calendar yr, that date this yr falls on a Saturday. Then, there’s one other federal vacation (Presidents’ Day) on Monday, February 16. Therefore, the SEC deadline robotically rolls over to the following enterprise day, which is February 17.
The 13F filings and why they’re trending
Because the world inches nearer to Valentine’s Day, anticipation of the Type 13F filings has continued to rise, with customers on X speculating that it may reveal the reason for the October 10 crash.
Type 13F filings are obligatory SEC disclosures, and so they concern institutional funding managers with over $100 million in US fairness AUM. They disclose lengthy positions in shares/ETFs quarterly, and are normally filed inside 45 days of 1 / 4 ending.
The filings for This autumn 2025 are anticipated to drop on February 14, 2026, Valentine’s Day, and in line with hypothesis on X, many count on the filings may reveal if a significant institutional participant had large publicity to $BTC by way of spot ETFs or associated equities and was liquidated closely round October 10 or within the aftermath.
The filings may reveal a smoking gun within the type of an unexplained disappearance of enormous holdings, sharp reductions in ETF positions, and even anomalies in filings from HK-based or different filers with outsized crypto allocations.
With this, folks may extra precisely infer who received wrecked within the crash, particularly if there have been any TradFi gamers concerned. Whereas the filings are extremely anticipated, it isn’t confirmed that they’ll have the ability to present a definitive rationalization for the crash.
Nevertheless, TradFi positions are opaque sufficient to gasoline the idea that the Valentine’s Day filings would possibly slim down the current suspects or present structural shifts.
Hypothesis on who or what precipitated the crash
On October 10, the crypto business endured what many are actually calling its largest single-day liquidation occasion. It noticed over $19 billion in leveraged positions forcibly closed inside roughly 24 hours, and $BTC dropped sharply whereas many altcoins plunged even more durable.
The cascade impact was excessive, and even now, months later, the business remains to be speaking about it. Initially, the crash was linked to macro/geopolitical elements. Nevertheless, it has turn into obvious that the crypto sector suffered essentially the most.
It didn’t assist issues that business leaders like OKX’s CEO pointed accusatory fingers at Binance, blaming their dealing with of dangerous asset positions.
Wintermute’s CEO, Evgeny Gaevoy, has expressed skepticism that the crash from October 10 had something to do with an change or market maker blowing up.
“Perhaps any individual blew up however there are merely no spillover results for us to care,” Gaevoy wrote on X. “When 3AC blew up put up terra everybody knew pretty quickly as a result of it unfold by way of DMs. Certain it was shock and disbelief at first nevertheless it lasted possibly 2-3 days all in all.”
Gaevoy additionally talked about how the state of affairs was much like FTX. Based on them, it took longer for folks to know, nevertheless it apparently additionally grew to become very apparent when it was revealed they had been in talks with Binance.
“You don’t speak about bailouts/investments except there’s something very improper,” Gaevoy wrote.
Franklin Bi, a basic accomplice at Pantera Capital, speculated that the crash could be linked to “somebody giant outdoors of crypto, probably based mostly in Asia, with only a few crypto-native counterparties.”
He claimed that is “why nobody has sniffed them out on CT.” In response to that prepare of thought, Gaevoy wrote, “Who would give 90 day circumstances on any individual blowing up is what’s unclear to me right here.”
A person named TheOtherParker on X echoed Franklin Bi’s sentiment about it being any individual giant outdoors crypto that can also be probably based mostly in Asia, who was wrecked.
“As @FranklinBi identified, the fund(s) being non-crypto would clarify why nobody sniffed them out. They might probably have few/no crypto counterparties, which means full isolation from CT,” TheOtherParker wrote.
“Sadly, if a fund had their IBIT place liquidated as we speak, they wouldn’t must disclose the place change till 45 days after the quarter finish, so we’d be mid Could for the smoking gun from 13F filings most definitely,” they added.
Among the most believable sounding analogies level to “a big non-crypto entity probably based mostly in HK.”
Nevertheless, the caveat stays that every one of those are largely hypothesis. The filings due on February 14 and dropping on the seventeenth will present solutions… If there are any.
