With S2F within the rearview, the reside power-law channel signifies that BTC is roughly 20% under truthful worth, however ETF flows may push it to both excessive.
Bitbo’s implementation of Giovanni Santostasi’s mannequin locations the worth close to $109,700, the truthful worth close to $136,100, the help close to $48,300, and the resistance close to $491,800, which frames the present cycle inside a rising hall derived from a power-law match to cost over time.
The channel is constructed by working a linear regression of log(worth) versus log(time since genesis), then duplicating that line in parallel to type higher and decrease bounds which have traditionally contained cyclical extremes.
The result’s a time-based compounding curve with rails that transfer upward as time passes, making the mannequin extra of a location map than a degree forecast.
The core declare is straightforward to guage in reside markets. Bitcoin trades about 20 p.c under the fair-value regression and greater than twice above the mannequin’s ground, a mid-zone placement that contrasts with prior cycle tops and bottoms when the worth tagged the channel’s resistance or help.
Parameterization utilized by BGeometrics expresses the fair-value curve as P ≈ 1.0117×10^-17 × (days since genesis)^5.82, with a generally referenced ground at about 0.42 instances the curve, which is in keeping with the current hole between spot worth and Bitbo’s decrease rail.
The specification contains historic drawdowns whereas permitting for late-cycle overextensions towards the higher band.
The logic behind this method treats adoption as an influence perform of time and expects volatility to decay because the community matures, a property that seems as tightening oscillations across the regression line over successive cycles.
Bitcoin holds its power-law lane as ETFs rewrite the cycle
Current flows assist clarify why the worth is within the channel’s center moderately than at an excessive. Crypto exchange-traded merchandise (ETPs) drew a document $5.95 billion in web inflows in the course of the week ending October 4, 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time excessive of roughly $126,000, alongside sturdy demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The next two weeks confirmed that flows are usually not a one-way enter. CoinShares recorded a swing to $3.17 billion of web inflows, adopted by a reversal to $513 million of web outflows, together with a single-week Bitcoin outflow of $946 million.
During the last two days alone, $958 million has exited US Bitcoin ETFs, with $290 million leaving BlackRock on October 30.
That cadence is in keeping with the power-law framing, the place transitory demand surges or air pockets push worth towards the higher or decrease rails over weeks, whereas the long-run trajectory is anchored to the time-based energy curve. October highs had been tied to the breakout wave of ETF subscriptions, which are actually a visual macro lever for crypto demand.
The ahead query, due to this fact, will not be whether or not the power-law construction nonetheless applies, however the place throughout the channel Bitcoin will commerce over the subsequent leg.
A base-case path retains the worth oscillating across the regression, at the moment close to $136,100, with a dampened amplitude if the volatility decay property holds.
A bull-case path would see continued ETF inflows and benign macro situations pull the worth towards the higher resistance, close to $491,800 at present, which prior cycles reached throughout late-stage runs.
A bear-case situation would come up from macro tightening, a regulatory shock, or persistent ETF outflows that drive a retest of the decrease rail close to $48,300. This stage has traditionally seen capitulation wicks earlier than reentry into the channel.
These ranges rise with time because the exponent on days since genesis compounds. The rails are directional guardrails, not mounted targets.
For readers monitoring ranges at a look, the reside mannequin ranges are:
| Measure | Stage |
|---|---|
| Spot worth | ≈ $109,700 |
| Honest-value regression | ≈ $136,100 |
| Help (ground band) | ≈ $48,300 |
| Resistance (higher band) | ≈ $491,800 |
The controversy over mannequin selection is formed by the breakdown of the once-popular Inventory-to-Circulation method.
PlanB’s S2F path referred to as for $98,000 by November 2021 and $135,000 by December 2021, targets that weren’t met.
The value then spent years under the S2F trajectory, an out-of-sample failure that weakened confidence in utilizing a univariate stock-to-flow ratio to set deterministic targets.
Vitalik Buterin has criticized S2F for offering false precision, and plenty of analysts have recognized methodological points, together with overfitting, the omission of demand and liquidity variables, and the remedy of halvings as step-wise valuation shifts that don’t account for market microstructure.
Institutional researchers proceed to warning that S2F will not be a dependable device for long-term pricing. That leaves S2F as a shortage narrative moderately than a forecasting mannequin.
Energy-law adherents, in contrast, argue that the cycle size and amplitude may be bounded with out hard-dating outcomes.
mycryptopot has beforehand outlined broad home windows through which Bitcoin wouldn’t maintain costs under roughly six figures after 2028 and will, in some unspecified time in the future between 2028 and 2037, contact the seven-figure mark.
These are ranges, not calendar calls, and so they inherit the identical caveats as any mannequin that ignores coverage shocks or structural modifications in market entry.
The brand new structural change is ETF circulation, which capabilities as a requirement valve that may overpower the marginal issuance cuts that halvings encode.
Sustained weekly spot inflows above $2 billion to $3 billion would increase the chances of an upper-band take a look at, whereas persistent outflows would improve the chance of a regression or ground retest.
Macro liquidity, together with the trail of charges, the greenback, and central financial institution stability sheets, nonetheless takes heart stage in figuring out whether or not the worth holds above the regression or drifts towards the decrease rail. That macro overlay is absent in S2F and is simply not directly current within the power-law match, which is why practitioners observe flows and coverage alongside the channel.
Methodology readability is essential given the mannequin’s rising use in institutional decks.
The ability-law channel is constructed by taking day by day BTCUSD closes, remodeling them to log(worth) versus log(time since genesis), becoming a easy linear regression because the fair-value curve, after which copying that line up and down in parallel to type resistance and help that traditionally enclose the worth.
The class lies in its manufacturing of a monotonically rising, time-based framework with a visual margin of error, which, thus far, has captured cycle extremes with out claiming to know the date or magnitude of future blow-offs.
The fee is that it doesn’t mechanistically incorporate recognized drivers, corresponding to ETF demand or liquidity cycles, which should be monitored to grasp the place throughout the channel worth is more likely to reside within the close to time period.
For now, the reside learn is simple. Value sits about one-fifth under the regression, nicely above the ground, with ETF flows and macroeconomic situations figuring out whether or not Bitcoin tags the higher band or fades towards help earlier than reverting to the imply.
The channel continues to rise with time, and the rails outline the tradable map.
