Bitcoin’s path again to a brand new all-time excessive and subsequent value discovery is being set by whether or not spot ETF flows flip persistent once more after a two-way begin to 2026 that examined how “sticky” institutional demand is within the post-ETF period.
mycryptopot tracked $1.29 billion of internet outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs from Dec. 15 by means of Dec. 31, 2025. The stretch confirmed redemptions can cluster even late within the 12 months.
The primary full buying and selling week of January 2026 introduced one other risk-off impulse. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed a mixed $681 million.
Farside Traders’ every day movement desk for that window reveals a number of giant damaging classes. These embrace -$486.1 million on Jan. 7, -$398.8 million on Jan. 8, and -$250.0 million on Jan. 9.
| Date (2026) | Spot BTC ETF internet movement (USD mm) |
|---|---|
| Jan. 7 | -486.1 |
| Jan. 8 | -398.8 |
| Jan. 9 | -250.0 |
| Jan. 14 | +840.6 |
| Jan. 20 | -479.7 |
| Jan. 21 | -708.7 |
| Jan. 22 | -32.2 |
| Jan. 23 | -103.5 |
The whiplash cuts each methods, revealing how rapidly the conduit can reopen and the way rapidly it might probably reclose when threat urge for food fades.
The most important single-day influx print of early 2026 arrived on Jan. 14. Inflows topped about $840 million, as Bitcoin traded above $97,000.
However the late-January tape shifted once more: 4 classes from Jan. 20 by means of Jan. 23 totaled roughly $1.32 billion of internet outflows, led by -$708.7 million on Jan. 21. That reversal is the extra present check of whether or not creations can persist past bursty, price-chasing days.
Bitcoin ETFs failed a important vacation stress check as $1.29 billion vanished by means of “tactical” positioning
Spot ETF period adjustments the market’s pacing
The 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a key market construction change that makes these prints important, reshaping how demand and provide are expressed by means of a regulated automobile. Previous to that, any crypto ETF flows had been basically meaningless, as they had been primarily based on ‘paper Bitcoin’ by means of futures markets.
For merchants making an attempt to time the following all-time excessive, the obvious query is whether or not this shift removes the halving cycle.
One factor we all know for sure is that it adjustments the pacing and visibility of repositioning, as a result of flows principally reply to macro situations fairly than impose them.
Historical past nonetheless units the newest reference level for “value discovery.” Bitcoin hit a file excessive of $126,100 in October 2025, in a transfer tied to U.S. fairness positive aspects and ETF inflows because the U.S. greenback retreated.
That October excessive landed in a window the place cycle highs have all the time occurred after previous halvings, as mycryptopot projected final 12 months.
The forward-looking query is whether or not the following break above that October 2025 ceiling arrives sooner by means of a renewed, multi-week ETF bid underneath regular coverage expectations outdoors of the standard cycle window.
Or, flows might stay tactical sufficient to delay a brand new excessive till the following cycle waypoint. This is able to not be till 2029 if we comply with historic timing, or late 2027 if the 2020 – 2024 cycle repeats, once we noticed one other all-time excessive proper earlier than the halving.
For context on how the final breakout developed, see mycryptopot’s explainer on why BTC reached a brand new all-time excessive.
Macro liquidity and charge expectations body the setup
Close to-term macro plumbing supplies a measurable backdrop. Within the Federal Reserve’s weekly H.4.1 launch for the week ended Jan. 21, 2026, “Securities held outright” stood at about $6.285 trillion.
In the identical launch, “Reserve Financial institution credit score” stood at $6.532 trillion. Some macro merchants observe it as a broader balance-sheet proxy and liquidity gauge.
These ranges don’t map one-to-one onto Bitcoin’s value, however within the ETF period, they assist describe the regime by which ETF creations could persist or revert, particularly round coverage conferences that may reprice threat.
| Fed H.4.1 line merchandise | Week ended | Worth (USD mm) | Approx. (USD T) | Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities held outright | Jan. 21, 2026 | 6,284,577 | 6.285 | Federal Reserve (H.4.1) |
| Reserve Financial institution credit score | Jan. 21, 2026 | 6,532,345 | 6.532 | Federal Reserve (H.4.1) |
The following volatility waypoint can also be dated. The following FOMC assembly begins Jan. 27, 2026, and ends Jan. 28, with the assertion due at 2 p.m. ET.
As of press time, the CME FedWatch device reveals a 97% chance of no change. In sensible phrases, that units up a short-run check of whether or not January’s influx day was the beginning of an extended creation streak, or whether or not late-January outflows mark a return to tactical, mean-reverting positioning.
It might additionally show to be a one-day chase that unwinds rapidly if charges repricing tightens monetary situations.
Three paths to the following Bitcoin all-time excessive
With these inputs, three timing home windows emerge that merchants can observe with out treating any single driver as deterministic.
Path 1
In a “liquidity steadies and the ETF bid persists” path, the following all-time excessive might are available in 2026 or 2027 if every day internet flows shift from bursts to multi-week internet creations. The market has already proven it might probably take in about $840 million of internet inflows in a single session.
The set off, nonetheless, is persistence: repeated optimistic totals in ETF flows that don’t rapidly mean-revert into multi-day outflow streaks, mixed with a calmer charges path round conferences such because the late-January FOMC window.
For cross-asset affirmation, the BTC/Nasdaq ratio is presently at 3.4, down from round 4.8 seen in October 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time excessive. BTC/Nasdaq (BTC value divided by the Nasdaq 100) acts as a relative-strength barometer for whether or not BTC is main or lagging US progress threat.
Thus, for the reason that October excessive, Bitcoin’s efficiency has deteriorated relative to the Nasdaq. That means BTC is in a weaker threat regime than it was on the peak.
Path 2
A second path retains the cycle idea intact however “re-parameterized” by TradFi rails. Underneath that view, the subsequent all-time excessive arrives later, probably nearer to the pre-2028-halving window.
The proof for that slower path is seen in two-way valve conduct. Massive outflows into year-end 2025 and once more in early January 2026 had been adopted by a pointy optimistic day that may mirror tactical re-entry as value strikes fairly than long-horizon allocation, after which one other late-January outflow streak.
Underneath that regime, value discovery turns into a conditional occasion. It requires each a break above the October 2025 highs and affirmation that creations are now not mean-reverting round risk-off weeks, fairly than a single catalyst date tied to issuance.
Path 3
A 3rd path treats drawdowns as a seamless constraint even with ETFs. Market historical past contains giant peak-to-trough declines that may reappear if a macro shock forces deleveraging throughout threat property.
PortfoliosLab lists a -76.67% most drawdown from November 2021 to November 2022. It additionally reveals earlier cycles exceeding -80%, together with -85.3%, -83.8% and -93.07% in prior durations.
On this situation, institutional rails could alter the velocity and liquidity of distribution.
Nonetheless, the envelope of historic outcomes stays broad sufficient that “subsequent ATH timing” turns into subordinate to how deep a reset will get priced earlier than a brand new accumulation section begins.
Promote-side forecasts present a separate reference vary that may be tracked in opposition to these triggers with out treating the goal as a baseline.
Normal Chartered expects Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the top of 2026. The financial institution lower the decision to about half of its prior $300,000 goal, setting a concrete marker that will require the market to reclaim the October 2025 highs and maintain above them.
Whether or not this path develops is now measurable daily by means of ETF movement persistence and week by week by means of Fed balance-sheet reporting and rate-path expectations, fairly than by means of halving narratives alone.
The instant check for that framework is available in the identical place the market is already watching. It’s Jan. 28 at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed releases its coverage assertion.
