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Reading: Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See Bitcoin’s Selloff Coming
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Mycryptopot > News > Crypto > Bitcoin > Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See Bitcoin’s Selloff Coming
Bitcoin

Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See Bitcoin’s Selloff Coming

November 18, 2025 3 Min Read
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Good Morning, Asia. This is what’s making information within the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a day by day abstract of prime tales throughout U.S. hours and an outline of market strikes and evaluation. For an in depth overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin’s slide into the low 90s has pressured prediction markets into certainly one of their quickest sentiment resets of the 12 months, with merchants abruptly abandoning upside eventualities and repricing the drawdown as a deeper structural break slightly than a routine correction.

The shift marks a uncommon second the place retail and institutional bettors have been caught off guard on the similar time. Polymarket odds about bitcoin’s value by 12 months’s finish have swung onerous towards additional draw back, reflecting a market that anticipated gentle weak spot slightly than a multi-week selloff that erased most of bitcoin’s year-to-date good points.

In a current word, QCP warned that even skilled desks weren’t positioned for a weekly shut under 100,000 or the lack of the 50-week shifting common, calling the transfer a cycle-level inflection that merchants are nonetheless digesting.

On-chain information from Glassnode reveals related stress, with oversold momentum, heavy realized losses, and moderating ETF outflows pointing to late-stage capitulation pressures as bitcoin trades in a zone the place prior bottoms have shaped.

However CryptoQuant argues in a current word the market remains to be lacking the final ingredient for a real backside, noting that realized losses stay just about nonexistent and that long-term holders are nonetheless promoting into power.

For now, the market sits between early indicators of exhaustion and the shortage of capitulation that often defines a sturdy ground, organising a unstable stretch as merchants determine which sign wins out.

Market Motion

BTC: Bitcoin slipped to about 92,500 in the course of the U.S. session, down roughly 2% on the day and 27% from final month’s document excessive.

ETH: Ether held simply above 3,000, easing about 2% over the previous 24 hours and lengthening its weekly decline to roughly 15%.

Gold: Gold slipped to about $4,069 an oz, down 0.3%, as fading expectations for a December Fed charge reduce and a firmer greenback weighed on the metallic after briefly pushing it above $4,100 earlier.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday after a tech-led slide on Wall Road, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.92% as traders awaited Nvidia earnings and the September jobs report.

Elsewhere in Crypto

  • DappRadar Shuts Down, Citing ‘Financially Unsustainable’ Market (CoinDesk)
  • Ethereum Is the Reverse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, Says Vitalik Buterin (Decrypt)
  • Man behind Barack Obama and Jeff Bezos Twitter hacks to repay over $5 million in stolen bitcoin (The Block)

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Reading: Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See Bitcoin’s Selloff Coming
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