Bitcoin could also be coming into the later phases of the continued bear market and forming a long-term market backside.
Particularly, the current drop to round $57,000 this month may grow to be this cycle’s equal of the $16,000–$18,000 low seen in late 2022. Whereas on-chain knowledge suggests the bottoming course of is progressing, key affirmation indicators have but to look.
Why $58K Might Mark This Cycle’s Backside
Market watcher Seth has mentioned there are rising indicators that Bitcoin’s high-timeframe (HTF) macro backside is already in place. “There are indicators that the HTF macro backside is in. $58K is the brand new $18K,” he wrote on X.
Seth famous that he accurately recognized Bitcoin’s $16,000 backside in the course of the 2022 bear market. He mentioned he wouldn’t be stunned if Bitcoin had as soon as once more established its cycle low.
After bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily. It reached about $73,650 in March 2024 earlier than rallying to an all-time excessive of $126,200 in October 2025.
Bitcoin Rebounds From July Low
Notably, Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1, its lowest stage but on this cycle. It then rebounded to round $64,600 by July 5.
As of in the present day, Bitcoin trades at $63,872, up about 4% over the previous week. Nonetheless, it stays down 27% year-to-date and continues to be about 49.4% beneath its October 2025 document excessive. That implies the restoration continues to be incomplete.
Glassnode: Backside Is Forming, however Affirmation Is Nonetheless Missing
In a current examine, Glassnode mentioned Bitcoin continues to be in “deep worth” territory after buying and selling beneath each the True Market Imply and the Brief-Time period Holder Value Foundation for almost 5 months.
The analytics agency mentioned long-term holder (LTH) promoting has intensified. Losses now account for 43% of complete realized worth, with realized losses reaching about $280 million per day, the very best stage since December 2022.
Glassnode’s chart additionally reveals that greater than 5.5 million BTC held by long-term traders is presently at a loss. Comparable ranges had been seen close to main market bottoms in earlier bear markets, earlier than Bitcoin began recovering.
Nonetheless, demand stays weak. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are nonetheless seeing internet outflows, whereas each day buying and selling quantity of $650 million to $950 million is about 80% beneath the October 2025 peak.
On the similar time, derivatives markets have grow to be barely extra optimistic. The put/name ratio has fallen to its lowest stage of 2026, though choices merchants are nonetheless pricing in draw back threat.
In sum, Glassnode mentioned Bitcoin could also be within the ultimate phases of forming a market backside. Nonetheless, it added that long-term holder promoting must ease earlier than a long-lasting restoration could be confirmed.
