Regardless of working separate order books, liquidity swimming pools and consumer bases, Polymarket and Kalshi priced Spain’s probabilities of profitable the World Cup at virtually precisely the identical likelihood forward of Sunday’s closing.
Polymarket priced Spain at roughly a 59% probability of lifting the trophy earlier than kickoff, whereas Argentina traded close to 40%. Kalshi’s market independently arrived at just about the identical evaluation, pricing Spain at 59,6% and Argentina at 40.4%.
Kalshi market Argentina vs. Spain. Supply: Kalshi
Completely different Markets, An identical Possibilities
The shut alignment supplied a uncommon illustration of how impartial prediction markets with separate liquidity swimming pools and consumer bases can arrive at related likelihood estimates via buying and selling alone.
That alignment emerged in the course of the largest sporting occasion in prediction market historical past, with Polymarket’s World Cup Winner contract processing $4.28 billion in quantity and Kalshi’s equal market one other $1.29 billion.
The size of buying and selling makes the similarity in pricing notably notable, despite the fact that the results of a single soccer match can not decide whether or not these possibilities have been completely calibrated.
Though the 2 markets reached practically equivalent possibilities, dealer positioning appeared fairly totally different. Whereas merchants usually chased worth on the underdog fairly than backing the favorite, leading to extra capital flowing towards Argentina regardless of Spain’s larger implied likelihood, each platforms in the end mirrored practically equivalent market expectations earlier than the match.
No Widespread Earnings
Blockchain analyst defioasis.eth examined greater than 194,000 Polymarket wallets and located that roughly two-thirds ended the match with losses. Solely 5 wallets generated income exceeding $1 million, whereas the overwhelming majority of each beneficial properties and losses remained underneath $100.
世界杯已告一段落，再次恭喜西班牙，不知道哪位小伙伴成功押中
在统计的 Polymarket 预测世界杯冠军归属市场的超过 19.4 万个独立交易地址中
亏损方面：
– 接近 13 万个地址预测错误实现亏损，亏损占比约 66.7%
– 大多数参与者的亏损幅度并不大，11.4 万个地址亏损在 100 美元以内，平均亏损不到 10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
One notable casualty was an Argentina supporter who misplaced a $1.23 million place within the closing after beforehand sitting on greater than $5 million in unrealized revenue.
The report buying and selling volumes have been vital, however they have been additionally largely anticipated. The match supplied one of many clearest large-scale demonstrations but of how prediction markets combination data via impartial buying and selling.
