Asia’s ongoing repression of cryptocurrency prediction markets is channeling funding, liquidity, and innovation to Western nations that opted for regulation.
In a report dated July 8, the Web3 analysis agency Tiger Analysis advised that the characterization of prediction markets as illegal playing is hindering Asian international locations from having fun with a thriving blockchain market. As an alternative of stopping demand, the authorized constraints merely push customers and enterprise transactions onto worldwide platforms and diminish shopper security.
The expansion of the sphere has been fueled by crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, the place trades are settled on-chain. Tiger Analysis estimates that the amount of commerce exceeds $14 billion each month; furthermore, the leaders within the business have an general worth of $40 billion.
In accordance with the report, Prediction markets promote contracts that pay $1 if an occasion takes place and $0 if it doesn’t; thus, predictions develop into real-time estimates of chances. Tutorial analysis has discovered these markets can produce informative forecasts. Meta’s reported Area undertaking is an instance of the rising curiosity on this expertise past crypto.
Asia retains reaching for the ban hammer
The crypto prediction markets are largely considered by authorities throughout the Asian continent as unlawful types of playing.
In January 2025, the Singapore Playing Regulatory Authority took censorship actions towards the Polymarket platform as a consequence of it being thought to be an unlicensed playing web site. Moreover, the utilization of the platform was restricted throughout Taiwan in the course of the 2024 presidential elections when customers have been punished for violating the election legal guidelines. In Thailand, the utilization of the platform was later additionally deemed unlawful when web service suppliers have been ordered to censor it, whereas China continues its long-standing ban on all playing and cryptocurrency platforms.
At current, Polymarket has additionally expanded the listing of nations the place its platform will not be accessible to incorporate the nations of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Myanmar, North Korea, Singapore, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, and Yemen. Customers in Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand are solely allowed to shut their positions in Polymarket because the platform doesn’t enable them to position new bets.
The tendency of regulators to crack down upon crypto prediction markets continues all through Asia. As indicated by Interexy, an organization that makes a speciality of blockchain growth, India prohibited real-money on-line gaming in 2025, stating that the prohibition follows the actions taken towards the opinion-trading platform Probo, which operates domestically.
The Philippines had additionally canceled the licenses for offshore playing operations, Hong Kong warned that crypto prediction markets could be handled as unlawful playing, Indonesia froze greater than 33,000 gambling-linked accounts, and Vietnam banned unlawful playing apps from app shops. Interexy concluded that regulators proceed making use of decades-old playing legal guidelines as an alternative of growing devoted guidelines for crypto prediction markets.
Nonetheless, the demand continues to be sturdy. In accordance with Chosun Day by day, a South Korean betting alternate referred to as Opinion has surpassed a outstanding 2 trillion-won mark in its weekly buying and selling quantity since its inception, regardless of the stringent measures imposed by the nation’s playing laws, highlighting that the laws don’t forestall gamblers from partaking in such actions and merely push them elsewhere.
The West selected to control, and cashed in
For the West, the course took a flip, and the distinction is clear within the cash. As an alternative of fully prohibiting prediction markets, U.S. authorities have allowed regulated occasion contracts to coexist with crypto exchanges. As estimated by blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, transaction volumes in prediction markets have been round $1.2 billion per thirty days at the start of 2025 and elevated to over $20 billion in January 2026, with roughly 840,000 lively wallets concerned.
Polymarket and Kalshi have paved the way in which for the enlargement. Kalshi features as a delegated contract market below the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. This explicit standing allowed its companions resembling CNN and Robinhood to achieve vital acceptance of event-type monetary contracts.
Regulatory measures didn’t cease many specialists from voicing their considerations. Former SEC Commissioner Joseph Grundfest cautioned that extremely particular occasion contracts could make inside buying and selling possible and argued that Polymarket doesn’t have anti-money laundering or know-your-customer laws which can be obligatory for monetary markets within the US.
Equally, distressed-asset investor Thomas Braziel referred to as prediction markets “sports activities playing wrapped in finance.” As well as, he warned that it’s a matter of time earlier than enterprise capital begins regretting its investments due to the excessive degree of regulatory uncertainty. Regulators within the US additionally referred to as to tighten oversight within the wake of the insider- buying and selling scandal involving event-driven contracts.
At present, the authorized dialog in the US focuses on whether or not federal commodities legal guidelines take priority over state playing laws. This situation might finally attain the Supreme Court docket, based on Grundfest. In Asia, nonetheless, the aggressive implications are already exhibiting.
Tiger Analysis states that counting on playing prohibitions might result in a lack of capital, liquidity, and improvements as different areas undertake regulated prediction-market frameworks. As Western markets refine their regulatory regimes, Asian international locations are below extra strain to determine if their present playing legal guidelines are nonetheless the easiest way of overseeing one of many fastest-growing industries within the crypto house.
