The newest Bitcoin market memo from Benjamin Cowen isn’t precisely what keen bulls needed to listen to. Whereas the current restoration above the 200-week SMA had provided some reduction, the report says that this transfer doesn’t essentially imply that it’s an finish of broader correction.
As an alternative, it factors towards a possible fourth quarter bottoming window, with the potential for Bitcoin falling beneath $45K area earlier than the subsequent main cycle begins.
Why Benjamin Cowen Suggests the 200-Week SMA Nonetheless Issues
Per the memo, $BTC/USD briefly slipped beneath 200-week SMA throughout its early-summer decline close to $57K throughout reclaiming the extent throughout a rebound to approx $65.3K.
Nevertheless, the report notes {that a} related break-and-reclaim sample additionally appeared in 2022, properly earlier than that cycle finally reached its last low.
That mentioned, the memo additionally highlights that the intently adopted 2019 cycle comparability has now exceeded its anticipated timing with out delivering the sharp capitulation seen beforehand. Quite than a dramatic collapse, the evaluation suggests the present reset could also be unfolding via time as an alternative of worth alone.
$BTC Onchain Sign Stays Blended
A number of on-chain indicators proceed supporting a cautious stance. The report notes the danger readings have entered traditionally engaging accumulation zones, whereas the proportion of provide in revenue and loss crossed throughout early-summer decline, a situation beforehand related to historic bottoming intervals.
Even so, the Loading profile preview ‘s memo argues the retest isn’t easy and may’t be confirmed as full but. The MVRV Z-score has bounced as an alternative of transferring beneath zero, worth approached realized worth close to $53K with out testing it, and market breadth has continued weakening regardless of current restoration. It additionally factors out that ETF holdings, which beforehand absorbed important provide, have begun rolling over.
Macro Calendar Nonetheless Maintaining Bears
The broader macro backdrop additionally stays a part of the bearish framework outlined within the report. The memo clearly notes that 2026 is a U.S. midterm election yr, traditionally the weakest section of the 4 yr market cycle.
Earlier midterm years typically skilled summer time rallies adopted by weaker August and September efficiency earlier than establishing cycle lows through the This fall.
Past seasonality, the report cites cooling inflation because of the earlier oil worth weak spot, renewed geopolitical dangers across the Strait of Hormuz, and the Federal Reserve that has shifted away from an easing bias, whereas sustaining elevated actual rates of interest.
For now, the Benjamin Cowen’s memo retains Bitcoin in what it describes as a “bottom-watch” section slightly than a confirmed restoration. In keeping with the evaluation, a sustained weekly reclaim above the 50-week SMA close to $86.5K would weaken the bearish outlook, whereas endurance stays the popular strategy till stronger affirmation emerges.
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