DWF Labs’ Martin Lee famous that Bitcoin futures open curiosity stood at 704,000 BTC this week, the best since Sept. 24, whereas spot market liquidity continued to skinny.
In the meantime, the Treasury’s $25 billion 30-year bond public sale on Nov. 12 drew a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio, down from 2.54 in October, and cleared at 5.441% in opposition to a 5.437% when-issued yield, a 0.4-basis-point tail.
The ten-year sale two days earlier confirmed a sharper slide, with bid-to-cover at 2.46 in opposition to 2.77 in October.
The ten-year cleared at 5.02%, with oblique bidders taking about 61.2% of aggressive awards versus 80.3% in October, and sellers taking 9.8% versus 2.5%. The three-year sale on Nov. 9 drew 2.53 in opposition to 2.62.
The 30-year outcome sits inside the vary of latest gross sales, since August’s new difficulty drew 2.39. The Treasury mentioned on Nov. 4 that demand for short-term payments remained robust, so the auctions present weaker urge for food for period, and a retreat from US debt could be a bigger declare.
Treasury expects $618 billion of privately held internet borrowing in October by December and $800 billion in January by March. The $125 billion in 3-, 10-, and 30-year refunding gross sales raises about $28 billion in new money.
Two-year yields close to 4.835% and 10-year yields close to 5.068% on Nov. 12 make money and authorities debt extra aggressive with Bitcoin.
The ten-year led November’s drop in Treasury bid-to-cover ratios
The ten-year fell 0.31, in contrast with 0.18 for the 30-year and 0.09 for the 3-year. October’s 10- and 30-year gross sales reopened present securities, whereas November’s gross sales have been new points.
mycryptopotTwo sources of liquidity for Bitcoin
Lee describes dollar-debasement demand and broader risk-on flows as two helps for Bitcoin in previous rallies. Each helped within the 2020 to 2022 cycle, and in August the debasement narrative let Bitcoin maintain up whereas AI shares corrected.
He shared in a be aware:
“The limitation is that debasement alone hardly ever sustains a rally when the broader market is risk-off.”
He sees little likelihood of liquidity rotating into crypto till uncertainty from the midterms and a near-certain December hike clears. Adoption continues, with Airwallex launching its personal chain and the NYSE advancing a tokenized inventory platform.
Lee mentioned Bitcoin choices open curiosity recovered to 447,000 BTC from a dip between Nov. 6 and Nov. 9, although it stays 5% to 10% under October. Bitcoin’s futures open curiosity is about 12% under its 2026 excessive, whereas Ethereum’s is down about 30% since Could and Solana’s about 23% since June.
At an illustrative $72,000, 704,000 BTC equals about $51 billion of gross notional. Open curiosity counts excellent contracts with a purchaser and a vendor on every, so it mixes lengthy bets, brief bets and hedges, and it describes positioning, a measure separate from contemporary capital.
Glassnode famous on Nov. 11 that open curiosity had rebuilt towards September ranges whereas Bitcoin sat about 15% under its September excessive, a sample in line with merchants including shorts throughout the decline.
Futures can amplify a rebound by brief protecting or a decline by compelled closures, and each routes rely upon spot liquidity.
The spot proof
Glassnode’s Nov. 11 evaluation discovered resting bids inside 5% of worth outweighing asks on Binance and Coinbase since Nov. 5, with the biggest focus between $68,000 and $72,500.
Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are accumulating, and different cohorts are distributing. A resting bid exhibits willingness to purchase, and whether or not purchases comply with depends upon the bid surviving, since bids might be pulled or overwhelmed.
Bitcoin fell under $72,000 on Nov. 12 with an intraday low close to $71,255, getting into the highest of that band.
About 35% of short-term holder provide is in revenue, and Bitcoin trades under the $75,600 short-term holder price foundation. CryptoQuant reported worthwhile provide falling from greater than 15 million BTC to about 11 million.
The 30-day common Coinbase premium is damaging, with the deepest low cost since February. Stablecoin provide contracted $14 billion in 30 days, the quickest since June 2022.
Farside Buyers confirmed about $2 billion of US spot ETF outflows from Nov. 2 by Nov. 11, together with $300 million on Nov. 11.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs misplaced roughly $1.9 billion throughout eight classesEvery day internet flows throughout the US spot Bitcoin ETFs , displaying seven of eight classes with internet outflows.
Nov. 2, 2026 – Nov. 11, 2026
Newest reported · USD -299.8M
mycryptopotThe place Bitcoin might go from right here
Lee argued:
“We have seen outflows speed up on the bottoms and inflows speed up on the tops.”
DWF Labs’ Oct. 22 research of 694 buying and selling days discovered ETF flows correlated 0.54 with Bitcoin’s prior five-day return and 0.03 with its subsequent five-day return. Flows turned damaging on the low day in seven of eight qualifying selloffs and constructive on the height day in seven of eight tops.
About 20% of ETF shopping for was traditionally tied to CME brief hedges.
Glassnode places the True Market Imply close to $77,500, a modeled six-month liquidation focus at $59,500 to $62,600, a June low close to $58,500 and a short-liquidation cluster close to $87,500.
A restoration would have stronger backing if consumers soak up promoting within the $68,000 to $72,500 band, Bitcoin reclaims $75,600 and $77,500, the Coinbase premium turns constructive and stablecoin provide resumes rising. That mixture might make futures positioning gasoline for a rebound.
If bids give approach whereas holder profitability erodes and stablecoin provide retains contracting, leveraged positions might amplify a decline. Glassnode’s modeled $59,500 to $62,600 zone marks a potential space of liquidation stress, not a worth goal.
