The chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall under $100,000 earlier than the beginning of 2026 has surged on crypto prediction platform Polymarket, reflecting rising bearish sentiment after a turbulent week for digital belongings.
The market, which poses the query“Will Bitcoin dip under $100k earlier than 2026?”, has seen odds spike from 47% on September 25 to 60% on the time of publication.
Earlier this week, when Bitcoin traded above $117,000, the identical contract carried only a 44% probability, with confidence eroding simply as rapidly as worth momentum fades.
BTC worth evaluation
Bitcoin now trades at $108,950, down greater than 2% on the day and over 6% on the week. A purple week in a transfer displays broader weak point throughout the crypto market, which has suffered almost $150 billion in market cap losses within the final 24 hours amid a wave of liquidations and risk-off flows.
Polymarket knowledge reveals that the whole betting quantity on the December 31, 2025, contract has climbed to $1.39 million, suggesting a surge of curiosity in hedging or speculating on the potential of a deeper correction.
Whereas prediction markets usually are not definitive forecasts, they supply a helpful gauge of investor psychology. The rising odds level to mounting considerations that Bitcoin could wrestle to carry assist ranges as macro pressures construct and liquidity tightens.
Nonetheless, with three months left in 2025, the market stays divided, and sharp reversals in sentiment have been an indicator of the Bitcoin cycle particularly in ‘Uptober.’
