Prediction markets went completely parabolic final quarter. Kalshi and Polymarket simply posted record-shattering numbers within the third quarter of 2025, with over $3 billion in notional quantity, greater than 5 occasions what they noticed this time final yr.
The mania has topped even the insanity of the 2024 US presidential election, and the surge has Wall Avenue’s CME Group and Intercontinental Change pushing their method in. Based on information from Bloomberg, each platforms crossed $2 billion within the week ending October 19, essentially the most they’ve ever seen.
The rally was primarily pushed by a wave of sports activities betting, principally by means of New York‑primarily based Kalshi, which used its federal license to supply bets nationwide, ignoring state playing regulators.
Kalshi’s contract volumes surged after soccer season kicked off in August and September, and customers flooded in, particularly retail merchants from Robinhood, because of a brand new partnership.
On the opposite facet, Polymarket, nonetheless closed to US merchants after notorious fights with regulators, noticed the same leap in visitors as crypto degens and political bettors discovered new occasions to wager on.
Kalshi leverages Robinhood crowd as soccer spikes buying and selling
Soccer bets dominated the week of October 19, pulling in $867 million on Kalshi and $415 million on Polymarket.
Kalshi gained an edge by providing parlays, permitting customers to wager on a number of low-odds occasions without delay. In prediction markets, each contract pays both $0 or $1 when the occasion ends.
Dune Analytics person dunedata tracked the general public numbers, counting just one facet of every commerce to make the 2 exchanges comparable. Kalshi’s information got here from its personal filings, which spokesperson Claire McManus confirmed had been correct. In the meantime, Polymarket’s information was gotten from its public blockchain, after Rachel Lowe, talking on behalf of the group, referred to as the information there “one of the best obtainable publicly,” whereas including that there are “all the time nuances to it.”
The final time volumes had been this excessive was through the 2024 presidential election, when Kalshi gained a courtroom case towards the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. That win let Kalshi legally host contracts on the election end result.
Each Kalshi and Polymarket had bettors giving Donald Trump excessive odds of successful. Since his return to the White Home, Trump and his circle have thrown their weight behind the business. His son, Donald Trump Jr., now serves as an adviser to each platforms.
Polymarket reclaims lead as ICE and CME pile in
In August, Kalshi briefly overtook Polymarket in total buying and selling quantity because of sports activities. However Polymarket snatched again the lead final week after doubling its sports-related quantity. Whereas Kalshi rode a regulated edge within the U.S., Polymarket stayed outdoors the nation on account of earlier authorized clashes.
That’s altering. Polymarket simply purchased QCX, a CFTC‑licensed derivatives trade, a transfer that units them up for a return to the U.S. market.
Wall Avenue needs in. ICE, the proprietor of the New York Inventory Change, invested $2 billion for a stake in Polymarket. CME Group is now planning to roll out contracts tied to sports activities video games. These strikes are coming at the same time as DraftKings and FanDuel-owner Flutter Leisure see their shares slide.
Their platforms nonetheless depend upon state-by-state playing licenses, whereas Kalshi’s federal license offers it wider entry, although not with out warmth.
A number of state regulators at the moment are making an attempt to close Kalshi down, saying its bets violate state gaming legal guidelines. Kalshi is preventing these instances in courtroom. As McManus put it, “We’re federally regulated. That’s what issues.”
On October 18, throughout a rush of faculty soccer bets, customers buying and selling on Kalshi reported platform points. McManus admitted the location confronted “information loading delays on account of excessive demand” however stated buying and selling continued on the backend with out disruption. She added that the difficulty was resolved shortly.
